Beware Third-Quarter Credit Risk

Could credit quality finally crack in the third quarter?

Banks spent the summer and fall risk-rating loans that had been impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and recession at the same time they tightened credit and financial standards for second-round deferral requests. The result could be that second-round deferrals substantially fall just as nonaccruals and criticized assets begin increasing.

Bankers must stay vigilant to navigate these two diametric forces.

“We’re in a much better spot now, versus where we were when this thing first hit,” says Corey Goldblum, a principal in Deloitte’s risk and financial advisory practice. “But we tell our clients to continue proactively monitoring risk, making sure that they’re identifying any issues, concerns and exposures, thinking about what obligors will make it through and what happens if there’s another outbreak and shutdown.”

Eight months into the pandemic, the suspension of troubled loan reporting rules and widespread forbearance has made it difficult to ascertain the true state of credit quality. Noncurrent loan and net charge-off volumes stayed “relatively low” in the second quarter, even as provisions skyrocketed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. noted in its quarterly banking profile.

The third quarter may finally reveal that nonperforming assets and net charge-offs are trending higher, after two quarters of proactive reserve builds, John Rodis, director of banks and thrifts at Janney Montgomery Scott, wrote in an Oct. 6 report. He added that the industry will be closely watching for continued updates on loan modifications.

Banks should continue performing “vulnerability assessments,” both across their loan portfolios and in particular subsets that may be more vulnerable, says James Watkins, senior managing director at the Isaac-Milstein Group. Watkins served at the FDIC for nearly 40 years as the senior deputy director of supervisory examinations, overseeing the agency’s risk management examination program.

“Banks need to ensure that they are actively having those conversations with their customers,” he says. “In areas that have some vulnerability, they need to take a look at fresh forecasts.”

Both Watkins and Goldblum recommend that banks conduct granular, loan-level credit reviews with the most current information, when possible. Goldblum says this is an area where institutions can leverage analytics, data and technology to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of these reviews.

Going forward, banks should use the experiences gained from navigating the credit uncertainty in the first and second quarter to prepare for any surprise subsequent weakening in credit. They should assess whether their concentrations are manageable, their monitoring programs are strong and their loan rating systems are responsive and realistic. They also should keep a watchful eye on currently performing loans where borrower financials may be under pressure.

It is paramount that banks continue to monitor the movement of these risks – and connect them to other variables within the bank. Should a bank defer a loan or foreclose? Is persistent excess liquidity a sign of customer surplus, or a warning sign that they’re holding onto cash? Is loan demand a sign of borrower strength or stress? The pandemic-induced recession is now eight months old and yet the industry still lacks clarity into its credit risk.

“All these things could mean anything,” Watkins says. “That’s why [banks need] strong monitoring and controls, to make sure that you’re really looking behind these trends and are prepared for that. We’re in uncertain and unprecedented times, and there will be important lessons that’ll come out of this crisis.”