Is the Recession Here Yet? Post-pandemic changes in the economy have disrupted supply chains, in-person work, the mortgage market and now, a recession predictor.  The Sahm rule predicts recessions based on changes in the unemployment rate and is named after Claudia Sahm, its creator and former Federal Reserve economist. The rule is “highly accurate” and could predict every U.S. recession since 1970, wrote Sahm, now the founder of Sahm Consulting, in a November opinion column on Bloomberg News. Only now, shifts in employment trends mean the rule might not perform as expected.   “The Sahm rule is simple,” she wrote. The…

Bank Deal Volume Continues to Slide Bank mergers and acquisitions resumed in the second half of 2023, but activity as of press time remained below 2022’s totals.  The second half of 2023 showed some buyers and sellers were willing to proceed with transactions after a lull — including those announcing the five largest deals of the year. August enjoyed 17 deal announcements, the most of 2023, according to data analytics firm S&P Global Market Intelligence. But activity has been sporadic, and there were only five deals announced through late October.  2023 has proven to be a difficult year for bank…