Who Are the Top Growth Banks?

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bank-growth-5-20-16.pngTo every rule there is an exception—or in this case, 10 of them.

Conventional wisdom says that revenue growth at commercial banks and thrifts in the current environment is challenged by continued downward pressure on net interest margins as the competition for loans remains fierce. But there is a group of banks that are thriving in today’s banking market despite the competitive pressures facing the industry. Working with Atlanta-based Bank Intelligence Solutions, a Fiserv subsidiary that collects and analyzes performance data on depository institutions, Bank Director identified 10 banks and thrifts that exhibited strong top line growth over a five quarter period ending March 31. Bank Intelligence Solutions CEO Kevin Tweddle admits that the industry’s growth performance over that period of time has not exactly been stellar. “These aren’t numbers that jump off the page,” says Tweddle. “It’s a really tough environment.” Still, these companies have been able to rise above the environment and post strong performances—which are all the more impressive given the economic headwinds that most banks have to deal with. The ranking includes public and private institutions over $1 billion in assets.

The issue of growth will be addressed at Bank Director’s Growing the Bank conference, which is scheduled for May 23-24 in Dallas. Included on the agenda are sessions on how to grow your business through smart branching decisions, collaboration, partnerships and acquisitions.

The conference attendees could also learn a thing or two from the 10 banks on our ranking, where the order was determined by their compound average growth rate in revenues over the five linked quarters. The top ranked bank—Sioux Falls, South Dakota-based MetaBank—led the pack with a growth rate of 19.3 percent over that period. The $3 billion asset bank is well diversified across multiple business lines, although lending still accounts for a significant part of its growth and profitability. MetaBank operates from 10 branches in Iowa and South Dakota, and reported 22 percent loan growth in its most recent fiscal year, which concluded September 30, 2015.The bank also saw 10 percent loan growth in the first two quarters of its 2016 fiscal year, which ran through March 31. Loan growth was particularly strong in commercial and agricultural sectors, although MetaBank also benefited from its December 2014 acquisition of AFS/IBEX, then the seventh largest U.S. insurance premium finance company. This unit makes loans to commercial businesses to fund their property/casualty insurance premiums, and it grew at an annualized rate of 52 percent between the date of acquisition and Meta’s fiscal year end in September of last year. MetaBank’s is also one of the country’s largest prepaid card issuers in the country, and in fiscal year 2015, that business grew its deposits by 25 percent and fees by 16 percent.

MetaBank also has a significant tax related business following its September 2015 purchase of Refund Advantage, which provides tax refund transfer software to electronic return originators (EROs) and their customers. An ERO is a tax preparer who has been authorized by Internal Revenue Service to submit tax returns to the IRS in an electronic format, and MetaBank earned significant software usage fees during its second quarter which ended March 31. Although the prepaid card and tax related operations are run as separate businesses from the retail bank, they are included in MetaBank’s overall results for reporting purposes.

The third ranked bank on our growth list, San Diego-based BofI Federal Bank, is a digital bank that operates nationwide through online and mobile platforms. The bank’s compound average growth rate through the five-quarter period was 11.93 percent. Of late, BofI has been seeing considerable growth in jumbo single family loans, small balance commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans. It has also benefited from its August 2015 acquisition of H&R Block Bank, which provided BofI with 257,000 new deposit accounts and the opportunity to cross-sell its products to that bank’s customers.

Growing revenues in the current economic environment is a challenge even for most of the banks on this list, although their performance shows that strong growth can be achieved. One thing that MetaBank and BofI have in common is a degree of specialization—agricultural loans and prepaid debit cards for MetaBank, jumbo mortgage loans for BofI. And if there’s one secret to cracking the revenue growth code, it might be having a niche that differentiates your bank from the rest of the pack.

The Top 10 Banks for Growth
Rank Bank Headquarters Assets (millions) Growth Percentage*
1 MetaBank SD 3,071 19.3
2 Academy Bank, N.A. CO 1,034 18.13
3 BofI Federal Bank CA 7,696 11.93
4 HarborOne Bank MA 2,246 11.49
5 Sterling Bank and Trust FSB CA 1,766 11.21
6 Beverly Bank & Trust, N.A. IL 1,012 10.62
7 WashingtonFirst Bank VA 1,755 9.74
8 First Foundation Bank CA 2685 9.7
9 Franklin Synergy Bank TN 2,298 9.7
10 TD Bank USA N.A. NJ 19,675 8.6

Source: Bank Intelligence Solutions and bank call reports
* CAGR based on revenue for bank for five trailing quarters through March 31, 2016
** MetaBank’s results include significant fee income from card and tax service related activities that are reported as part of its results.

Midyear Update: Current Trends in Bank M&A

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Bank mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the first half of 2015 can be summed up with a single word: consistency. Each of the first seven months of the year has seen the announcement of approximately 25 deals per month with the exception of January, when only 20 deals were announced. The results have been a robust M&A market consistent with the one experienced in 2014.

How well 2015 turns out will depend on consistency in the remaining months. As shown below, 2014 deal volume was influenced substantially by the very strong fourth quarter. That quarter was fairly weak, though, until the last two weeks of December, when numerous unexpected deal announcements resulted in the strongest fourth quarter in years.

Based on the current pace for bank acquisitions, 2015 should end just slightly below 2014’s totals. To quantify that, the chart below shows the rate of consolidation based on the number of bank charters in use at the beginning of a period and then shows the number of announced bank deals for that period divided by the charters. The average rate of consolidation over time has been approximately 3.41 percent.

In 2014 and so far in 2015, the consolidation rate has been above 4.5 percent, which is another indication of how strong the bank M&A market is.

Credit Drives M&A Volume
So where is all of the consolidation coming from, and what are the drivers of the strong M&A volume?

Credit has been a significant driver, and last year saw credit improve enough at target banks to spur an increase in deal volume. The other drivers have been the size of the banks sold and an improvement in pricing.

Over the past five and a half years, deals have been dominated by smaller community banks (those with less than $250 million in assets), as shown below.

The median size of sellers has not fluctuated significantly over this time frame. What has changed are the levels of nonperforming assets and the profitability of the sellers. In 2010-2011 these deals were affected by high levels of nonperforming assets, which drove losses at many of the sellers. Nonperforming asset levels currently are down, and profits are up. As a result, the price/tangible book value realized increased from the lower levels of five-plus years ago and is spurring deal flow.

While deal pricing has improved, it’s interesting to look at the stratification of the number of deals in each band of price/tangible book value. Even with improved pricing, no clear pattern of where pricing is being clustered is emerging. Several bands at both the low and high ends of the pricing spectrum indicate that the deals are varied and include banks that still suffer from credit and earnings issues as well as banks in desirable markets with strong credit quality and strong earnings prospects.

All Regions Show Improvement
As shown below, all regions in the U.S. have fared well during the 18 months ending June 30, 2015. Compared to two years ago, the improvement is marked.

The highest deal volume occurred in the Midwest region, which is consistent with the fact that the Midwest has the most bank charters. However, the median size of the seller is the lowest, and this translated into the lowest price/tangible book value ratios of any region. After the initial impact of plummeting oil prices on deal volume and values, the Southwest rebounded to have the most robust pricing. The other two compelling regions are the Southeast and the West. Both regions were hit hard by declines in land values during the credit crisis and now, having weathered that storm, are experiencing strong activity and rising prices. New England continues to be strong, although the deal volume there is the lowest of any region.

Future for Bank M&A Is Consistent
2015 should shape up to be another strong year in bank M&A. The buyers are smaller in asset size than in the pre-crisis years, but they are active and looking to increase their franchise footprint. Many of the buyers are facing challenges to earnings growth, whether from a lack of organic growth in loans and deposits or because of the Federal Reserve’s prolonged low interest rates negatively affecting bank net interest margins. At the same time, many sellers have expressed concerns over the cost of regulatory burdens on their income statement, and some sellers are finding it difficult to replace retiring board members and upper management, leading them to look for a partner for the future. Whatever the impetus, the data clearly shows that bank M&A should remain consistent for some time into the future.

Report from Audit Conference: Banking Still Faces Headwinds

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asset-quality-6-11-15.pngSure, banks have seen asset quality improve. Profitability is higher than it was during the recession. The SNL U.S. Bank and Thrift Index of publicly traded banks has risen 88 percent since the start of 2012. But all is not happy-go-lucky in bank land.

Speakers at Bank Director’s Bank Audit and Risk Committees Conference discussed the slow economic recovery and the headwinds banks are facing as a result. The banking industry’s compound annual loan growth rate during the last few years of 3 percent is down from the average of 7 percent from 1993 to 2007, said Steve Hovde, president and CEO of the Chicago-based investment bank Hovde Group. Net interest margins are 50 basis points lower than they were at the start of the decade. Combined with low interest rates, weak loan demand is hurting growth and profitability. Banks are stretching for loans and pricing competition is difficult. The median return on average assets (ROAA) was .93 percent in the first quarter of 2015, even though half of the banking industry made an ROAA of 1 percent or better pre-recession, Hovde said.

“In this environment, net interest margins are the lowest point they’ve been in 25 years,’’ Hovde said. “Clearly, if we had a more vibrant economy, banks could go back to making more money.”

With the Federal Reserve keeping rates low for the foreseeable future, and all the pricing competition, bubbles could be forming in some sectors, Hovde said. He specifically mentioned multi-family housing and junk bonds as possibilities.

Even stock prices aren’t that great from a historical perspective. The SNL U.S. Bank and Thrift Index has only climbed 4.2 percent since the start of 2000, compared to 40.7 percent for the S&P 500 during that time.

And what about the economic forecast for housing, a significant economic driver and source of revenue for many banks? 

Doug Duncan, the chief economist for Fannie Mae, said the housing market is in no way back to pre-recession levels. Although he expects an increase in mortgage originations in 2015 and 2016, refinancing volume is down. 

Households are still deleveraging in the aftermath from the Great Recession, but that has stabilized somewhat. Consumer spending in this economic recovery has been “incredibly weak,’’ Duncan said. Only recently have consumers in surveys reported an expectation for future income gains. 

Household growth, or the rate at which people are forming new households, has been depressed, as young adults have not been leaving the nest and getting their own apartments or buying homes in large numbers. Large numbers of adult children live at home. Millennials, burdened by college debt and the aftermath of the recession, are forming households at a slower pace than previous generations, and their real incomes are lower than the same generation a decade ago. It’s not that they don’t want to own houses, Duncan said. He said 76 percent of them think owning a house is a good idea financially. It’s just that they can’t afford it. 

But household formation is expected to rebound in 2015 to 2020, as the economy continues to improve and employment grows, he said. 

Is Banking’s Business Model Broken?

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5-28-13_Hovde.pngThe banking industry—by most measures—has improved markedly from the depths of the credit crisis. The industry’s return on average assets (ROAA) has increased through additional noninterest income and fewer charge-offs; credit quality is stronger; capital reserves are at all-time highs; and the number of banks on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s (FDIC) problem list has declined for the past seven quarters. Additionally, public bank stocks either have tracked or outperformed the S&P 500 in recent years.

Despite these positive trends, banking’s business model is significantly challenged in today’s interest rate environment. With deposit costs near zero and fierce competition for loans driving down yields, many banks are running on fumes.

As higher yielding loans mature, banks are replacing them with lower yielding assets, resulting in significant net interest margin (NIM) compression across the industry. Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary policy has helped or hurt the economy, it is wreaking havoc on banks’ profit models. Indeed, it would be nearly impossible to start a de novo bank today and make money through traditional means.

According to the FDIC, the industry’s NIM in Q4 2012 was 3.32 percent—the 3rd lowest quarterly NIM since 1990. Since Q1 2010, net interest margins have declined each quarter except one, with no sign of near-term relief. To combat the NIM squeeze, some banks are taking more interest rate and credit risk. By venturing further out on the yield curve and underwriting riskier assets, banks can generate more revenue; however, the risks may not justify the returns. In the short-term, the strategy could increase profits. In the long-term, it could create less stable institutions and the conditions for another credit crisis.

Yet loan growth will be critical to maintaining earnings over the next several years if the Fed continues its low interest rate policy. Unfortunately, most regions of the country have not recovered sufficiently to support such growth. Since 2009, the banking industry’s net loans have grown at a compounded annual rate of 2.2 percent compared to 7.0 percent between 1990 and 2007, and during this time, many banks have experienced loan declines. Furthermore, competition for the few available high quality loans is intense and driving yields even lower.

Even if a bank were able to grow its loan portfolio, it would take exceptional growth just to maintain current net income levels if NIMs continue to deteriorate. Consider the following example: if net interest margins were to decline by 15 basis points per year, a bank with $500 million in assets and a current NIM of 4.0 percent would need to grow loans by $50 million each year just to maintain the same level of net income (assuming all other profitability measures remained static). Under these circumstances, the bank’s ROA would decline each year, and the present value of the franchise would decrease. Furthermore, there are very few, if any, banks that can achieve 10 percent year-over-year loan growth today.

In addition to the sobering interest rate environment, regulatory changes—including BASEL III, the Dodd-Frank Act, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau—are looming large over the decisions of bank management and boards. Compliance costs associated with the new regulations remain uncertain, but undoubtedly will increase.

The one-two punch of the interest rate environment and increased compliance costs could prove too painful for many banks—particularly smaller institutions with older management teams who may be frustrated and don’t want to slog out any more years of lackluster performance and regulatory scrutiny.

Industry observers have been awaiting a renewed wave of bank M&A activity, and growing frustration just might be the catalyst. With organic loan growth almost nonexistent, strategic M&A is the only other way to amass scale today. Banks hoping to enhance franchise value will need to grow through acquisition, and there could be a large supply of frustrated sellers coming to the market. Unfortunately, if this occurs there is likely to be a supply and demand imbalance between sellers and buyers, which will hurt smaller, community banks the most. Active buyers have moved upstream and are looking for acquisitions that “move the needle.” Many buyers simply won’t bother with sellers under a certain asset size. This attitude could prompt smaller banks to consider a “strategic merger” in which they join together in a stock exchange to increase scale and attractiveness to buyers down the road.

Other banks may be content to grind it out knowing earnings are likely to suffer in the near-term. If rates rise, those banks with deep core deposit franchises will once again become more valuable, but the wait could be painful.

Until then, banking’s operating model remains impaired, if not broken.