Understanding Your Bank’s Capital Alternatives


capital-10-18-17.pngIt is crucial for executive management to engage their boards in practical conversations surrounding the raising of capital. Important questions include what form of capital is best from a strategic perspective, how much dilution to earnings per share (EPS) is acceptable and how soon can the dilution be earned back. To answer these questions, management must first have a solid understanding of each type of capital.

Common Equity
Common equity tends to receive the most favorable treatment from a regulatory perspective and is fully included in Tier 1 capital. This, however, comes at a cost beyond the 5 to 7 percent fee paid to your investment banker. A common equity raise increases the number of shares outstanding. This translates to dilution of earnings per share and existing ownership until the new capital is leveraged, or put to work.

When a bank undergoes a common equity raise, it also gives up ownership and voting rights. If the bank is unable to raise common equity at or above current tangible book value per share (TBVS), or is concerned with existing ownership dilution, it should seriously consider an alternative source of capital. Banks must have clearly defined parameters in place for raising capital, particularly its impact on TBVS and EPS.

When evaluating a common offering, two key considerations are: (1) whether to conduct a private offering or undergo an IPO, and (2) whether to raise capital internally or externally. Having a strategic plan in place is critical to ensure that the bank can execute on deploying capital and earning back the initial shareholder dilution.

IPO or No?
Not everyone needs to conduct an initial public offering (IPO), but for larger institutions or institutions seeking liquidity, it is an excellent option. An IPO provides liquidity for stockholders, generates capital to accelerate growth, and depending on trading volume establishes currency that can be utilized in acquisitions. Once an institution undergoes an IPO it has also created access to capital markets for follow-on offerings to continue to raise capital as needed. While IPOs provide a faster vehicle to raise capital, they also require more time from key management, detracting from their role in day-to-day operations.

Subchapter-S corporations must consider ramifications of increasing their shareholder base before triggering a requirement to convert to a stock corporation. Once an S-corporation exceeds 100 stockholders, it must convert to a C-corporation, which has immediate tax implications and changes in reporting requirements.

Private Placements
For smaller banks or institutions that are closely held, private placements may be preferable to an IPO. Although the timeframe for a private placement may be longer, less time is required from management. Private placements are limited to existing stockholders, accredited investors and qualified institutional buyers. While private placements are generally smaller and less dilutive to EPS, it can also may be difficult to raise larger amounts of capital using this vehicle. The bank will be able to remain private with less pressure to immediately leverage capital, allowing greater autonomy in strategic decisions.

Alternative Sources of Capital
Noncumulative perpetual preferred stock can be counted towards Tier 1 capital and can be used to increase tangible equity. Banks with a clean risk profile may be willing to operate with lower levels of tangible common equity and focus on bolstering tangible equity. Preferred stock is generally less expensive to raise, although there is a post-tax dividend that can range from 5 to 9 percent.

For banks with a holding company, another form of capital—debt—can be down-streamed in its entirety to common equity at the bank level. Debt is the least expensive form of capital, costing approximately 3 percent to raise with no dividends and tax-exempt interest expense.

Regardless of the approach used to raise capital, be realistic in how much you can effectively leverage. Excess capital may be viewed favorably from a regulatory perspective but can become a value detractor if not effectively deployed. This is particularly true for banks entertaining the possibility of a sale. Over-capitalized targets are likely to be priced on a leveraged capital approach, meaning that tangible common equity in excess of a certain percentage of average assets will be priced at 100 percent TBVS and only the leveraged portion of capital will receive a premium.

When raising capital in any form, proactively communicate with regulators and stockholders remembering that neither party likes surprises. Work with your financial advisor to run pro forma analyses on multiple scenarios and establish parameters for EPS and ownership dilution to maximize the impact of your capital raise.

The Banking Themes of 2017: What to Expect


bank-trends-2-3-17.pngAfter the anemic economic growth and overregulation of the past decade, what banking themes can we expect in 2017 amid current market optimism?

Rates
For an immediate impact, Trump and the Republican Congress need to lower the corporate tax rate first. Other policy agendas will have long-term effects. The true unemployment rate is over 10 percent, not 4.6 percent, when factoring in a normal labor participation rate, which is currently close to a 40-year low. Almost all employment growth from 2005 to 2015 is part-time, temporary or contract work. The economy is still not well, yet inflation continues to build, for example, with rising healthcare costs, government services and education costs. Most assets are overpriced with artificially low rates contributing to a torrid stock market and average price/earnings ratios at a 20-year high. This should keep rate hikes to 1 or 2 percentage points versus the 3 or 4 percentage points most are predicting. Rate hikes will create a nominal positive effect on net interest margin for banks of 5 to 10 basis points.

Credit
Corporate debt ratios are higher, particularly those with high yield. Most banks have thankfully chased high grade customers and credit since the crash. However, many are at or over the 300 percent real estate or 100 percent construction and development loan thresholds. Expect a real estate pullback. If the stock market retreats 5 to 10 percent, a mild recession may result. We are due for a credit correction over the next 6 to 18 months. It will hurt non-bank lenders more than banks. Loan growth should remain steady and provisions need to increase.

Capital
If bank stock prices can stay above 16 times earnings, expect more initial public offerings (IPOs) due to pent-up demand from 2016. Many banks are trading at 20 times price to earnings or more, and banks are in favor with investors. Bank stocks have been a greed and fear trade since 2008 with a near 100 percent correlation. Consumer and investor confidence is running high presently. Optimism abounds about interest rates, the economy, tax cuts and deregulation. While it all seems to be priced into bank stocks right now, investing in government optimism versus company fundamentals feels a bit awkward at best. Expect a pullback, but for the sector to remain strong with good, core earnings growth of 15 percent or more and with more IPOs in quarters two through four. There has been an increasing interest from yield-starved investors in bank stock loans, subordinated debt and preferred stock. Expect that to continue.

M&A
The volatility in the markets in 2016 were driven by China, energy, and Brexit, so renewed confidence could be a good thing for M&A. Do prospective sellers, frustrated with lackluster returns and burdensome regulations, have newfound optimism and upward price exit expectations? Perhaps, but there is room to run here. Volume was down 10 percent in 2016 with 242 deals. But there was an increase in exits or restructuring, as private equity investments matured and investor activists pressured banks to sell. Confidence and high buyer currency should lead to increased volume in 2017, especially given the seller expectations being average to below average, while buyer currencies are at 20-year highs. But if volatility and fear get too high, then M&A will slow.

Deposits
One or two rate hikes shouldn’t be an issue as bankers will wait to raise rates on deposits. At some point, depositors will gain confidence in the market and push for higher returns. This will be interesting as many bankers think they have core deposits, even though they don’t, and will realize they have a liquidity problem when the deposits run.

Regulatory
Complaints about the Dodd Frank Act are still rampant industry wide, but bankers will be found thinking, “Hey, I’ve spent the money and adjusted. I need certainty, not uncertainty.” While there are still parts of Dodd-Frank that haven’t been implemented, deregulation could be the developing theme. Also, what happens to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau? This is an entity which basically usurped power from the other regulatory agencies, and plenty of senators and representatives would like to curtail its power.

Customers
Lastly, banks will have to work on improving customers’ experience. Take note of the retail industry. After a robust Christmas shopping season, Macy’s is closing 59 stores and Sears even more. If your product is clothing at a good price, then online retailers have stolen your product. Retail needs to provide an experience to differentiate. Some banks are already delivering a coffee shop or networking experience. Amid the fake news perpetuated online, and failed deliverables from Wall Street, the country is desperate for a trusted refuge and harbor of safety they can believe in. Perhaps, banks that deliver an experience anchored in a theme of trust will do well.