Getting the Most out of the Profitability Process

The banking industry is increasingly using profitability measurements and analysis tools, including branch, product, officer and customer levels of profitability analysis.

But a profitability initiative can be a considerable undertaking for an organization from both process and cultural perspectives. One way that institutions can define, design, implement and manage all aspects of a profitability initiative is with a profitability steering committee and charter — yet less than 20% of financial institutions choose to leverage a profitability steering committee, according to the 2020 Profitability Survey from the Financial Managers Society. Over the past 30 years, we have found that implementing a profitability process inherently presents several challenges for institutions, including:

  • Organizational shock, due to a change in focus, culture and potentially compensation.
  • Profitability measurement that can be as much art as it is science.
  • A lack of the right tools, rules and data needed.
  • A lack of knowledge to best measure profitability.
  • A lack of understanding regarding the interpretation and use of results.
  • An overall lack of buy-in from people across the organization.

The best approach for banks to address and overcoming these challenges is to start with the end in mind. The graphic below depicts what this looks like from a profitability initiative perspective. Executives should start from the top left and let each step influence the decisions and needs of the subsequent step. Unfortunately, many organizations start at the bottom right and work their way up to the left. This is analogous to driving without a destination in mind, or directions for where you want to go.

The best way for banks to work through the above process, and all the related nuances and decisions, to ensure the successful implementation of a profitability initiative is by creating and leveraging a profitability steering committee and related charter. There are three primary components of a profitability steering committee and charter. The first task for the committee is to define the overall purpose and scope of the profitability initiative. This includes:

  • Defining the goals of the steering committee.
  • Outlining the governance of the initiative.
  • Defining how the profitability results will be used.

The committee’s next step is to define the structure of the profitability process, including:

  • The employees or roles that will receive profitability results, based on the decisions to be made, the results they will identify, any needed metrics and reports and any examples of reports.
  • The tool selection process, including determining whether an existing tool exists or if the bank needs a new tool, documenting system/tool requirements, creating the procurement process details and ownership of the tool.
  • Deciding and documenting governance concerns that relate to profitability rules, including identifying the primary owner of the rules, the types of rules needed (net interest margin, costs, fees, provision or capital), the process for proposing and approving rules, any participants in the process and any education, if needed.
  • Identifying the data needs and related processes for the initiative, such as the types of data needed, the sources and process for providing that data, ownership of the data process and the priority and timelines for each data type.

The committee’s final step focuses on the communication and training needs for the profitability initiative, including defining:

  • A training plan for stakeholders.
  • A communication plan that includes how executive will support for the initiative, a summary of the goals, decisions that need to be made, and any expectations and timelines, as well as details of the process, as needed.
  • An escalation process for handling questions, issues or disputes, and the role that committee members are expected to play in the escalation process.
  • The help and support, such as personnel and documents. that will be available.

Additional Best Practices
When creating a profitability steering committee and related charter, we have found it helpful to consider the following items as appropriate:

  • If profitability results will be included as part of individual or team incentive compensation, be sure to work through the necessary details, such as process flows, additional reporting, required integration points and data flows, dispute management, additional education and training, among others.
  • Consider aligning any metrics, approaches and reporting structures if the budgeting and planning process forecasts profitability.
  • Document plans for assessing the profitability initiative over time.
  • Finally, keep it suitably simple. Expect to be asked to explain the initiative’s approaches, details and results; the bank can always increase the precision and/or complexity over time.

Understanding the Attributes of Core Deposits


deposits-9-27-17.pngAs loan growth materializes, it is important to renew the focus on liquidity management, have an overall liquidity plan and a contingency funding plan. In order to create and implement such plans, it is important to understand the attributes of deposits. Even if a bank is not experiencing stronger loan growth, it is necessary to understand the elasticity of core deposits in order to make accurate modeling assumptions.

Anyone who experienced a higher interest rate environment remembers depository institutions having to compete with money market funds and other non-bank investment instruments that paid comparatively high rates. As the economy emerges from the bottom of a 10-year interest rate trough, depositors are starving for interest income. Institutions are finding that customers are willing to buy longer term CDs in exchange for yield. We simply do not know how long deposits will remain on books in a higher rate environment or how much we will have to pay to keep them.

The primary core deposit assumptions used for interest rate simulation models are beta and decay. Deposit beta is an indication of how rates correlate to the market. For example, if you use a beta of 0.25 on your savings rate, for every projected market rate move of 100 basis points, the savings account rate will move 25 basis points.

Decay is the measure of deposit attrition, or how long deposit accounts will likely remain open. If you decay a savings account over a 60-month period, you make the assumption that the savings account will have a 60-month maximum life. The normal range for decay is 24 months for sensitive deposits and 84 months for more static accounts.

Historically these numbers have been typically supplied by market averages, vendors, the Office of Thrift Supervision (which was merged with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in 2011) and management estimates. Various forms of deposit studies are gaining popularity but remain the least common means of obtaining core deposit assumptions. Meanwhile other modeling assumptions utilize prepayment rates, discount rates and spreads and are much more precise. The higher degree of precision for these non-deposit modeling assumptions helps reduce simulation risk. The irony here is that even though non–deposit assumptions are much more precise, they have a lesser impact on simulation results. This means that the greatest amount of simulation risk comes from assumptions with the least amount of basis!

In order to demonstrate the impact of these core deposit assumptions, we can take a typical Bank asset/liability management simulation and compare the results of the Economic Value of Equity (EVE shock/stress both with and without these beta and decay assumptions.) This serves as a stress test of the deposit assumptions. To stress the assumptions, we will simply set all betas to one and all maturities to one month. Then we can compare the results. To keep it simple, we will look at it graphically:

EVE-chart.png

Note how the EVE variance is between +7 percent and -14 percent when the betas and decays are utilized in the simulation. Once they are removed, this variance is between +10 percent and -30 percent, showing that it almost doubles in a rising rate scenario. In this case, removing the assumptions or making material changes to them can cause a financial institution to approach or exceed prudent risk limits. Additionally, this will also impact the net interest income shock as well, but a complete simulation will need to be performed to assess the impact.

The graph shows that core deposit assumptions are an important variable in the modelling results, especially if used as a management tool. As mentioned, this can be also used as a regulatory stress test. Stress tests are good but they do not serve the purpose of creating valid assumptions for management purposes. This can be accomplished by a core deposit study. A detailed core deposit study is a fairly involved and costly project but it will produce the most accurate assumptions. An abbreviated core deposit study can be used to understand the correlation of deposit line items to market rates and back into decay rates. There are a number of companies offering such services for institutions without in house expertise. It is worth exploring such options as the regulators are most likely to focus on core deposits as interest rates rise.