Navigating Four Common Post-Signing Requests for Additional Information

Consolidation in the banking industry is heating up. Regulatory compliance costs, declining economies of scale, tiny net interest margins, shareholder liquidity demands, concerns about possible changes in tax laws and succession planning continue driving acquisitions for strategic growth.

Unlike many industries, where the signing and closing of an acquisition agreement may be nearly simultaneous, the execution of a definitive acquisition agreement in the bank space is really just the beginning of the acquisition process. Once the definitive agreement is executed, the parties begin compiling the information necessary to complete the regulatory applications that must be submitted to the appropriate state and federal bank regulatory agencies. Upon receipt and a quick review of a filed application, the agencies send an acknowledgement letter and likely a request for additional information. The comprehensive review begins under the relevant statutory factors and criteria found in the Bank Merger Act, Bank Holding Company Act or other relevant statutes or regulations. Formal review generally takes 30 to 60 days after an application is “complete.”

The process specifically considers, among other things: (1) competitive factors; (2) the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of the company or companies and the banks concerned; (3) the supervisory records of the financial institutions involved; (4) the convenience and needs of the communities to be served and the banks’ Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) records; (5) the effectiveness of the banks in combating money laundering activities; and (6) the extent to which a proposal would result in greater or more concentrated risks to the stability of the United States banking or financial system.

During this process, the applicant and regulator will exchange questions, answers, and clarifications back and forth in order to satisfy the applicable statutory factors or decision criteria towards final approval of the transaction. Each of the requests for additional information and clarifications are focused on making sure that the application record is complete. Just because information or documents are shared during the course of the supervisory process does not mean that the same information or documents will not be requested during the application process. The discussions and review of materials during the supervisory process is separate from the “application record,” so it helps bank management teams to be prepared to reproduce information already shared with the supervisory teams. A best practice for banks is to document what happens during the supervisory process so they have it handy in case something specific is re-requested as part of an application.

Recently, we consistently received a number of requests for additional information that include questions not otherwise included in the standard application forms. Below, we review four of the more common requests.

1. Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic. Regulators are requesting additional information focused on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Both state and federal regulators are requesting a statement on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that discusses the impact on capital, asset quality, earnings, liquidity and the local economy. State and federal agencies are including a request to discuss trends in delinquency loan modifications and problem loans when reviewing the impact on asset quality, and an estimate for the volume of temporary surge deposits when reviewing the impact on liquidity.

2. Additional, Specific Financial Information. Beyond the traditional pro forma balance sheets and income statements that banks are accustomed to providing as part of the application process, we are receiving rather extensive requests for additional financial information and clarifications. Two specific requests are particular noteworthy. First, a request for financial information around potential stress scenarios, which we are receiving for acquirors and transactions of all sizes.

Second, and almost as a bolt-on to the stress scenario discussion, are the requests related to capital planning. These questions focus on the acquiror’s plan where financial targets are not met or the need to raise capital arises due to a stressed environment. While not actually asking for a capital plan, the agencies have not been disappointed to receive one in response to this line of inquiry.

3. List of Shareholders. Regardless of whether the banks indicate potential changes in the ownership structure of an acquiror or whether the consideration is entirely cash from the acquiror, agencies (most commonly the Federal Reserve), are requesting a pro forma shareholder listing for the acquiror. Specifically, this shareholder listing should break out those shareholders acting in concert that will own, control, or hold with power to vote 5% or more of an acquiring BHC. Consider this an opportunity for both the acquiror and the Federal Reserve to make sure control filings related to the acquiror are up to date.

4. Integration. Finally, requests for additional information from acquirors have consistently included a request for a discussion on integration of the target, beyond the traditional due diligence line of inquiry included in the application form. The questions focus on how the acquiror will effectively oversee the integration of the target, given the increase in assets size. Acquirors are expected to include a discussion of plan’s to bolster key risk management functions, internal controls, and policies and procedures. Again, we are receiving this request regardless of the size of the acquiror, target or transaction, even in cases where the target is less than 10% of the size of the acquiror.

These are four of the more common requests for additional information that we have encountered as deal activity heats up. As consolidation advances and more banks file applications, staff at the state and federal agencies may take longer to review and respond to applications matters. We see these common requests above as an opportunity to provide more material in the initial phase of the application process, in order to shorten the review timeframe and back and forth as much as possible. In any event, acquirors should be prepared to respond to these requests as part of navigating the regulatory process post-signing.

Positive Outlook for Bank M&A as the Pandemic Subsides

Will there be an acceleration of bank merger and acquisition activity in 2021 and beyond?

The short answer is yes.

As the Covid-19 pandemic recedes, we expect bank M&A activity to rebound, both in terms of branch and whole-bank acquisitions. Banks and their advisors have evolved since the pandemic’s onset forced office closures and the implementation of a new remote working environment. In the past year, institutions and their boards of directors improved technology and online banking capabilities in response to customer needs and expectations. They also gained substantial experience providing banking products and services in a remote environment. This familiarity with technology and remote operations should cause acquirors and sellers alike to reconsider where they stand in the M&A market in 2021 and beyond.

We see a number of factors supporting an improved M&A market in 2021. First, many acquirors and potential deals were sidelined in the spring of 2020, as the pandemic’s uncertainty setting in and the markets were in turmoil. We expect a number of these deals to be rekindled in mid- to late-2021, if they haven’t already resurfaced. We also expect a robust set of acquirors to return to the market looking to add deposits, retail and commercial customers, lending teams, and additional capabilities.

Second, there remains a growing number of small banks struggling to compete that would likely consider potential merger partners with similar cultures and in similar geographic markets. Similarly, risk management and compliance costs continue to challenge bank managers amid tough competition from community banks, credit unions and other non-bank financial institutions. Some small banks have also struggled to provide the digital offerings that have become commonplace since the pandemic began. These challenges are sure to have smaller banks considering merger partners or new investors.

Third, larger banks are looking to grow deposits and market share as they look to compete with more regional players that have the necessary compliance infrastructure and digital offerings. We expect these more regional players to use acquisition partners as a way to grow core deposits and increase efficiencies. Acquiring new deposits and customers also affords these regional banks the ability to cross-sell other products that smaller banks may not have been able to offer the same customers before — increasing revenue in a sustained low-interest rate environment.

Finally, the low-interest rate environment has opened the capital markets to banks of all sizes looking to raise subordinated debt, which may support community bank M&A. Many subordinated debt offerings are priced in the 4% to 5% range, and often are oversubscribed within just a few days. Banks have found these offerings to be an attractive tool to pay off debt with higher interest rates, fund investments in digital infrastructure, provide liquidity to shareholders through buyback programs and seek branch or whole-bank acquisition targets.

We are already seeing activity pick up in bank M&A, and expect that as the economy — and life itself — begins to normalize in 2021, more transactions to be announced. The prospects for an active merger market in 2020 were cut off before spring arrived. This year, as we approach spring once again, the M&A market is not likely to return to pre-pandemic levels, but the outlook is certainly much more optimistic for bank M&A.

Five Assessments that Every Acquirer Should Make

Acquiring another bank will be one of the most important decisions that a board of directors ever makes. A well-played acquisition can be a transformational event for a bank, strengthening its market presence or expanding it into new markets, and enhancing its profitability.

But an acquisition is not without risk, and a poorly conceived or poorly executed transaction could also result in a significant setback for your bank. Failing to deliver on promises that have been made to the bank’s shareholders and other stakeholders could preclude you from making additional acquisitions in the future. Banking is a consolidating industry, and acquisitive banks earn the opportunity to participate one deal at a time.

When a board is considering a potential acquisition, there are five critical assessments of the target institution that it should make.

Talent
When you are acquiring a bank, you’re getting more than just a balance sheet and branches; you’re also acquiring talent, and it is critical that you assess the quality of that asset. If your bank has a more expansive product set than the target, or has a more aggressive sales culture, how willing and able will the target’s people be to adapt to these changes in strategy and operations? Who are the really talented people in the target’s organization you want to keep? It’s important to identify these individuals in advance and have a plan for retaining them after the deal closes. Does the target have executives at certain positions who are stronger than members of your team? Let’s say your bank’s chief financial officer is nearing retirement age and you haven’t identified a clear successor. Could the target bank’s CFO eventually take his or her place?

Technology
Making a thorough technology assessment is crucial, and it begins with the target’s core processing arrangement. If the target uses a different third-party processor, how much would it cost to get out of that contract, and how would that affect the purchase price from your perspective? Can the target’s systems easily accommodate your products if some of them are more advanced, or will significant investments have to be made to offer their customers your products?

Culture
It can be difficult to assess another bank’s culture because you’re often dealing with things that are less tangible, like attitudes and values. But cultural incompatibility between two merger partners can prevent a deal from reaching its full potential. Cultural differences can be expressed in many different ways. For example, how do the target’s compensation philosophy and practices align with yours? Does one organization place more emphasis on incentive compensation that the other? Board culture is also important if you’re planning on inviting members of the target’s board to join yours as part of the deal. How do the target’s directors see the roles of management and the board compared to yours? Unless the transaction has been structured as a merger of equals, the acquirer often assumes that its culture will have primacy going forward, but there might be aspects of the target’s culture that are superior, and the acquirer would do well to consider how to inculcate those values or practices in the new organization.

Return on Investment
A bank board may have various motivations for doing an acquisition, but usually there is only one thing most investors care about – how long before the acquisition is accretive to earnings per share? Generally, most investors expect an acquisition to begin making a positive contribution to earnings within one or two years. There are a number of factors that help determine this, beginning with the purchase price. If the acquirer is paying a significant premium, it may take longer for the transaction to become accretive. Other factors that will influence this include duplicative overhead (two CFOs, two corporate secretaries) and overlapping operations (two data centers, branches on opposite corners of the same intersection) that can be eliminated to save costs, as well as revenue enhancements (selling a new product into the target’s customer base) that can help drive earnings.

Capabilities of Your M&A Team
A well-conceived acquisition can still stumble if the integration is handled poorly. If this is your bank’s first acquisition, take the time to identify which executives in your organization will be in charge of combining the two banks into a single, smoothly functioning organization, and honestly assess whether they are equal to the task. Many successful banks find they don’t possess the necessary internal talent and need to engage third parties to ensure a successful integration. In any case, the acquiring bank’s CEO should not be in charge of the integration project. While the CEO may feel it’s imperative that they take control of the process to ensure its success, the greater danger is that it distracts them from running the wider organization to its detriment.

Any acquisition comes with a certain amount of risk. However, proactive consideration toward talent, technology, culture, ROI and a thoughtful selection of the integration team will help enable the board to evaluate the opportunity and positions the acquiring institution for a smooth and successful transition.

Cloudy M&A Expectations for 2021

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, related economic downturn and recent presidential election, 2020 was a historic year characterized by high levels of uncertainty. These circumstances resulted in a significant drop in M&A activity in the banking sector, as stock prices dropped and bankers’ focused on serving customers and supporting their staff.

Bank Director’s 2021 Bank M&A Survey, sponsored by Crowe LLP, explores this unique environment. Rick Childs, a partner at Crowe, offers his perspective on the survey results — and what they mean for 2021 — in this video.

  • Top Deal Drivers

  • Pricing Expectations

  • Looking Ahead

Will We Ever See Three Times Book Again?

Mergers and acquisitions are examined as part of Bank Director’s Inspired By Acquire or Be Acquired. Click here to access the content on BankDirector.com.

In the late 1990s, the economy was doing well.

Bank stocks traded at such rich multiples that no one batted an eye when a management team sold their bank for two times book. That valuation meant you were a mediocre bank.

Take Fifth Third Bancorp in Cincinnati. In the ‘90s, its stock traded at more than five times book value. A well run and efficient bank, it had the currency to gobble up competitors and it did.

It announced a deal in 1999 to buy Evansville, Indiana-based CNB Bancshares for 3.6 times tangible book value and 32 times earnings. “That was not completely unheard of,” says Jeff Davis, managing director at consultancy Mercer Capital. Fifth Third announced a deal in 2000 to buy Old Kent Financial Corp for a 42% premium.

In fact, Fifth Third was a little late to the M&A premium game. The average bank M&A deal price reached a peak of 2.6 times tangible book value in 1998. The median price was 24 times earnings that year.

M&A Pricing Peaked in 1998

Source: Mercer Capital, S&P Global Market Intelligence and FDIC.

It was such a hot market for bank acquisitions, investors rushed into bank stocks in order to speculate on who would get purchased next. I remember sitting down with then-president of the Tennessee Bankers Association, Bradley Barrett, in the mid-2000s. He predicted the market would fall and many banks would suffer.

Boy, was he right. He was probably the first to school me in banking cycles.

Fast forward two decades. The industry is in a relatively depressed trough for bank valuations. Selling a bank for three times book value in the 2020s seems a remote fantasy. And it is. The pandemic and the economic uncertainty that kicked off this decade took a huge chunk out of banks’ earning potential and dragged down shares. As of Feb. 2, the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index was down 4% compared to a year ago. The S&P 500 was up 18% in the same time frame.

Granted, bank stock valuations have improved during the last six months. Investors tie bank stocks to the health of the economy: When the economy is improving, so will bank stocks, the thinking goes. As pricing improves, bankers should be more interested in doing deals in 2021, Davis says. Much of bank M&A pricing is dependent on the value of the acquirer’s stock, since most deals have a stock component.

But rising stock prices haven’t translated into higher prices for deals — at least not yet. The average price to tangible book value for a bank deal at the end of 2020 was 116%, according to Davis, presenting slides during a session of Inspired by Acquire or Be Acquired.

Improved stock valuations alone can’t alleviate the pressure holding down M&A premiums. Newer loans are pricing lower as companies and individuals refinance or take on new loans at lower rates, slimming net interest margins.

Plus, investors have also been less receptive recently to banks paying big premiums for sellers, says William Burgess, co-head of investment banking for financial institutions at Piper Sandler, during an Inspired By presentation.

There’s usually a rise of mergers of equals in times after an economic crisis, and that’s exactly what the industry is experiencing. The rollout of the vaccine and improving economic conditions could lead to more confidence on the part of buyers, higher stock prices and more bank M&A. Sellers, meanwhile, are under pressure with low interest rates, slim margins and the costs of rapidly changing technology.

“We think there’s going to be a real resurgence in M&A in late spring, early summer,” Burgess says.

To see M&A pricing rise to three times book, though, interest rates would have to rise substantially, Davis says. But higher interest rates could pose broader problems for the economy, given the heavy debt loads at so many corporations and governments. Corporations, homeowners and individuals could struggle to make debt payments if interest rates rose. So would the United States government. By the end of 2020, America’s debt reached 14.9% of gross domestic product, the highest it has been since World War II. In an environment like this, it might be hard for the Federal Reserve to raise rates substantially.

“The Fed seems to be locked into a low-rate regime for some time,” Davis says. “I don’t know how we get out of this. The system is really stuck.”

Exploring Banking’s What Ifs

What if the ball didn’t sneak through Bill Buckner’s legs in 1986?

What if you answered the call to deliver two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoins in 2010?

What if Hillary Clinton lost the popular vote but won the electoral college in 2016?

Thought exercises like these can take you down the rabbit holes that many opt to avoid. But how about asking “what if” type questions as a way to embrace change or welcome a challenge?

Mentally strong leaders do this every day.

In past years, such forward-facing deliberations took place throughout Bank Director’s annual Acquire or Be Acquired conference. This year, hosting an incredibly influential audience in Phoenix simply wasn’t in the cards.

So, we posed our own “what ifs” in order to keep sharing timely and relevant ideas.

To start, we acknowledged our collective virtual conference fatigue. We debated how to communicate key concepts, to key decision makers, at a key moment in time. Ultimately, we borrowed from the best, following Steve Jobs’ design principle by working backward from our user’s experience.

This mindset resulted in the development of a new BankDirector.com platform, which we designed to best respect our community’s time and interests.

Now, as we prepare to roll out this novel, board-level business intelligence package called Inspired By Acquire or Be Acquired, here’s an early look at what to expect.

This new offering consists of short-form videos, original content and peer-inspired research — all to provide insight from exceptionally experienced investment bankers, attorneys, consultants, accountants, fintech executives and bank CEOs. Within this new intelligence package, we spotlight leadership issues that are strategic in nature, involve real risk and bring a potential expense that attracts the board’s attention. For instance, we asked:

WHAT IF… WE MODERNIZE OUR ENTERPRISE

The largest U.S. banks continue to pour billions of dollars into technology. In addition, newer, digital-only banks boast low fees, sleek and easy-to-use digital interfaces and attractive loan and deposit rates. So I talked with Greg Carmichael, the chairman and CEO of Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Bancorp, about staying relevant and competitive in a rapidly evolving business environment. With our industry undergoing significant technological transformation, I found his views on legacy system modernization particularly compelling.

 

WHAT IF… WE TRANSFORM OUR DELIVERY EXPECTATIONS

Bank M&A was understandably slow in 2020. Many, however, anticipate merger activity to return in a meaningful way this year. For those considering acquisitions to advance their digital strategies, listen to Rodger Levenson, the chairman and CEO of Wilmington, Delaware-based WSFS Financial Corp. We talked about prioritizing digital and technology investments, the role of fintech partnerships and how branches buoy their delivery strategy. What WSFS does is in the name of delivering products and services to customers in creative ways.

 

WHAT IF… WE DELIGHT IN OTHER’S SUCCESSES

The former chairman and CEO of U.S. Bancorp now leads the Make-A-Wish Foundation of America. From our home offices, I spent time with Richard Davis to explore leading with purpose. As we talked about culture and values, Richard provided valuable insight into sharing your intelligence to build others up. He also explained how to position your successor for immediate and sustained success.

These are just three examples — and digital excerpts — from a number of the conversations filmed over the past few weeks. The full length, fifteen to twenty minute, video conversations anchor the Inspired By Acquire or Be Acquired.

Starting February 4, insight like this lives exclusively on BankDirector.com through February 19.  Accordingly, I invite you to learn more about Inspired By Acquire or Be Acquired by clicking here or downloading the online content package.

How Credit Unions Pursue Growth

The nationwide pandemic and persistent economic uncertainty hasn’t slowed the growth of Idaho Central Credit Union.

The credit union is located in Chubbuck, Idaho, a town of 15,600 near the southeast corner, and is one of the fastest growing in the nation. It has nearly tripled in size over the last five years, mostly from organic growth, according to an analysis by CEO Advisory Group of the 50 fastest growing credit unions. It also has some of the highest earnings among credit unions — with a return on average assets of 1.6% last year — an enviable figure, even among banks.

“This is an example of a credit union that is large enough, [say] $6 billion in assets, that they can be dominant in their state and in a lot of small- and medium-sized markets,” says Glenn Christensen, president of CEO Advisory Group, which advises credit unions.

Unsurprisingly, growth and earnings often go hand in hand. Many of the nation’s fastest growing credit unions are also high earners. Size and strength matter in the world of credit unions, as larger credit unions are able to afford the technology that attract and keep members, just like banks need technology to keep customers. These institutions also are able to offer competitive rates and convenience over smaller or less-efficient institutions.

“Economies of scale are real in our industry, and required for credit unions to continue to compete,” says Christensen.

The largest credit unions, indeed, have been taking an ever-larger share of the industry. Deposits at the top 20 credit unions increased 9.5% over the last five years; institutions with below $1 billion in assets grew deposits at 2.4% on average,” says Peter Duffy, managing director at Piper Sandler & Co. who focuses on credit unions.

As of the end of 2019, only 6% of credit unions had more than $1 billion in assets, or 332 out of about 5,200. That 6% represented 70% of the industry’s total deposit shares, Duffy says. Members gravitate to these institutions because they offer what members want: digital banking, convenience and better rates on deposits and loans.

The only ones that can consistently deliver the best rates, as well as the best technology suites, are the ones with scale,” Duffy says.

Duffy doesn’t think there’s a fixed optimal size for all credit unions. It depends on the market: A credit union in Los Angeles might need $5 billion in assets to compete effectively, while one in Nashville, Tennessee, might need $2 billion.

There are a lot of obstacles to building size and scale in the credit union industry, however. Large mergers in the space are relatively rare compared to banks — and they became even rarer during the coronavirus pandemic. Part of it is a lack of urgency around growth.

“For credit unions, since they don’t have shareholders, they aren’t looking to provide liquidity for shareholders or to get a good price,” says Christensen.

Prospective merger partners face a host of sensitive, difficult questions: Who will be in charge? Which board members will remain? What happens to the staff? What are the goals of the combined organization? What kind of change-in-control agreements are there for executives who lose their jobs?

These social issues can make deals fall apart. Perhaps the sheer difficulty of navigating credit union mergers is one contributor to the nascent trend of credit unions buying banks. A full $6.2 billion of the $27.7 billion in merged credit union assets in the last five years came from banks, Christensen says.

Institutions such as Lakeland, Florida-based MIDFLORIDA Credit Union are buying banks. In 2019, MIDFLORIDA purchased Ocala, Florida-based Community Bank & Trust of Florida, with $743 million in assets, and the Florida assets of $675 million First American Bank. The Fort Dodge, Iowa-based bank was later acquired by GreenState Credit Union in early 2020.

The $5 billion asset MIDFLORIDA was interested in an acquisition to gain more branches, as well as Community Bank & Trust’s treasury management department, which provides financial services to commercial customers.

MIDFLORIDA President Steve Moseley says it’s probably easier to buy a healthy bank than a healthy credit union. “The old saying is, ‘Everything is for sale [for the right price],’” he says. “Credit unions are not for sale.”

Still, despite the difficulties of completing mergers, the most-significant trend shaping the credit union landscape is that the nation’s numerous small institutions are going away. About 3% of credit unions disappear every year, mostly as a result of a merger, says Christensen. He projects that the current level of 5,271 credit unions with an average asset size of $335.6 million will drop to 3,903 credit unions by 2030 — with an average asset size of $1.1 billion.

CEO Advisory Credit Union Industry Consolidation Forecast

The pandemic’s economic uncertainty dropped deal-making activity down to 65 in the first half of 2020, compared to 72 during the same period in 2019 and 90 in the first half of 2018, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Still, Christensen and Duffy expect that figure to pick up as credit unions become more comfortable figuring out potential partners’ credit risks.

In the last five years, the fastest growing credit unions that have more than $500 million in assets have been acquirers. Based on deposits, Vibe Credit Union in Novi, Michigan, ranked the fastest growing acquirer above $500 million in assets between 2015 and 2020, according to the analysis by CEO Advisory Group. The $1 billion institution merged with Oakland County Credit Union in 2019.

Gurnee, Illinois-based Consumers Cooperative Credit Union ranked second. The $2.6 billion Consumers has done four mergers in that time, including the 2019 marriage to Andigo Credit Union in Schaumberg, Illinois. Still, much of its growth has been organic.

Canyon State Credit Union in Phoenix, which subsequently changed its name to Copper State Credit Union, and Community First Credit Union in Santa Rosa, California, were the third and fourth fastest growing acquirers in the last five years. Copper State, which has $520 million in assets, recorded a deposit growth rate of 225%. Community First , with $622 million in assets, notched 206%. The average deposit growth rate for all credit unions above $500 million in assets was 57.9%.

CEO Advisory Group Top 50 Fastest Growing Credit Unions

“A number of organizations look to build membership to build scale, so they can continue to invest,” says Rick Childs, a partner in the public accounting and consulting firm Crowe LLP.

Idaho Central is trying to do that mostly organically, becoming the sixth-fastest growing credit union above $500 million in assets. Instead of losing business during a pandemic, loans are growing — particularly mortgages and refinances — as well as auto loans.

“It’s almost counterintuitive,” says Mark Willden, the chief information officer. “Are we apprehensive? Of course we are.”

He points out that unemployment remained relatively low in Idaho, at 6.1% in September, compared to 7.9% nationally. The credit union also participated in the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program, lending out about $200 million, which helped grow loans.

Idaho Central is also investing in technology to improve customer service. It launched a new digital account opening platform in January 2020, which allows for automated approvals and offers a way for new members to fund their accounts right away. The credit union also purchased the platform from Temenos and customized the software using an in-house team of developers, software architects and user experience designers. It purchased Salesforce.com customer relationship management software, which gives employees a full view of each member they are serving, reducing wait times and providing better service.

But like Idaho Central, many of the fastest growing institutions aren’t growing through mergers, but organically. And boy, are they growing.

Latino Community Credit Union in Durham, North Carolina, grew assets 178% over the last five years by catering to Spanish-language and immigrant communities. It funds much of that growth with grants and subordinated debt, says Christensen.

Currently, only designated low-income credit unions such as the $536.5 million asset Latino Community can raise secondary capital, such as subordinated debt. But the National Credit Union Administration finalized a rule that goes into effect January 1, 2022, permiting non-low income credit unions to issue subordinated debt to comply with another set of rules. NCUA’s impending risk-based capital requirement would require credit unions to hold total capital equal to 10% of their risk-weighted assets, according to Richard Garabedian, an attorney at Hunton Andrews Kurth. He expects that the proposed rule likely will go into effect in 2021.

Unlike banks, credit unions can’t issue stock to investors. Many institutions use earnings to fuel their growth, and the two measures are closely linked. Easing the restrictions will give them a way to raise secondary capital.

A separate analysis by Piper Sandler’s Duffy of the top 263 credit unions based on share growth, membership growth and return on average assets found that the average top performer grew members by 54% in the last six years, while all other credit unions had an average growth rate of less than 1%.

Many of the fastest growing credit unions also happen to be among the top 25 highest earners, according to a list compiled by Piper Sandler. Among them: Burton, Michigan-based ELGA Credit Union, MIDFLORIDA Credit Union, Vibe and Idaho Central. All of them had a return on average assets of more than 1.5%. That’s no accident.

Top 25 High Performing Credit Unions

Credit unions above $1 billion in assets have a median return on average assets of 0.94%, compared to 0.49% for those below $1 billion in assets. Of the top 25 credit unions with the highest return on average assets in 2019, only a handful were below $1 billion in assets, according to Duffy.

Duffy frequently talks about the divide between credit unions that have forward momentum on growth and earnings and those who do not. Those who do not are “not going to be able, and have not been able, to keep up.”

How Digital Transformation is Driving Bank M&A

Three large bank acquisitions announced in the closing quarter of 2020 may signal a fundamental shift in how a growing number of regional banks envision the future.

While each deal is its own distinct story, there is a common thread that ties them together: the growing demand for scale in an industry undergoing a technological transformation that accelerated during the pandemic. Even large regional banks are hard pressed to afford the kind of technology investments that will help them keep pace with mega-banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., which spend billions of dollars a year between them on their own digital transformation.

In October, First Citizens BancShares acquired New York-based CIT Group. Valued at $2.2 billion, the deal will create a top 20 U.S. bank with over $100 billion in assets, and combines the Raleigh, North Carolina-based bank’s low-cost retail funding base with CIT’s national commercial lending platform.

The two companies are a good strategic fit, according to H. Rodgin Cohen, the senior chair at Sullivan & Cromwell, who represented CIT. “If you look at it from CIT’s perspective, you can finance your loans at a much-cheaper cost,” says Cohen in an interview. “From a First Citizen perspective, you have the ability to use that incredible funding base for new categories of relatively higher-yielding loans.”

But digital transformation of banking was an underlying factor in this deal, as increasing numbers of customers shift their transactions to online and mobile channels. The fact that the pandemic forced most banks to close their branches for significant periods of 2020 only accelerated that trend.

“There is enormous pressure to migrate to a more digital technology-driven approach — in society as a whole — but particularly in banking,” Cohen says. “The key is to be able to spread that technology cost, that transformational cost, across the broadest possible customer base.  It doesn’t take a lot of direct savings on technology, simply by leveraging a broader customer base, to make a transaction of size really meaningful.”

A second scale-driven deal is PNC Financial Services Group’s $11.6 billion acquisition of BBVA USA, the U.S. arm of the Spanish bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. Announced in mid-November, the deal will extend Pittsburgh-based PNC’s retail and middle-market commercial franchise — now based in the Mid-Atlantic, South and Midwest — to Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and California, with overlapping locations in Texas, Alabama and Florida. In a statement, PNC Chairman and CEO William Demchak said the acquisition provided the bank with the opportunity to “bring our industry-leading technology and innovative products and services to new markets and clients.”

The deal will create the fifth-largest U.S. bank, with assets of approximately $566 billion. But Demchak has made it clear in past statements that PNC needs to grow larger to compete in a consolidating industry dominated by the likes of JPMorgan and Bank of America.

Lastly, in a $6 billion deal announced in mid-December, Columbus, Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares is acquiring Detroit-based TCF Financial Corp. to form the tenth largest U.S. bank, with assets of approximately $170 billion. Chairman and CEO Stephen Steinour says the two companies are an excellent fit with similar cultures and strategies.

“It’s a terrific bank,” Steinour says in an interview. “I’ve known their chairman for a couple of decades. Many of our colleagues have friends there, or family members. We compete against them. We see how they operate. There’s a lot to like about what they’ve built.”

The acquisition will extend Huntington’s retail footprint to Minnesota, Colorado, Wisconsin and South Dakota, while deepening its presence in the large Chicago market. And with extensive overlapping operations in Michigan, Huntington expects the deal to yield approximately $490 million in cost saves, which is equivalent to 37% of TCF’s noninterest expense.

But this deal is predicated on much more than just anticipated cost saves, according to Steinour.

What Apple and Google and Amazon are doing is teaching people how to become digitally literate and creating expectations,” he says. “And our industry is going to have to follow that in terms of matching those capabilities. This combination is an opportunity to accelerate and substantially increase our digital investment. We have to do more, and we have to go faster, because our customers are going to expect it.”

Steinour hedges on if these recent deals also signal that banking is entering a new phase of consolidation, in which regionals pair off to get bigger in a new environment where scale matters. But last year’s $66 billion merger of BB&T Corp. and SunTrust Banks Inc. to form Truist Financial Corp. — currently the fifth-largest U.S. bank, although the post-merger PNC will drop it down a peg — was also driven by a perceived need for more scale. Senior executives at both companies said the primary impetus behind the deal was the ability to spread technology costs over a wider base.

But clearly, the need for scale was a factor for Huntington as well. “We’re investing heavily in this opportunity to combine two good companies, get a lot stronger, accelerate our investments and spread that over a much bigger customer base,” he says. “That makes eminent sense to us.”

As Steinour comments later, “We’ll be stronger together.”

2021 Bank M&A Survey Results: Uncertainty Stalls Growth Plans

Will bank M&A activity thaw out in 2021?

Bank deals have been in deep freeze due to Covid-19 and the related economic downturn, but most of the executives and directors responding to Bank Director’s 2021 Bank M&A Survey, sponsored by Crowe LLP, say their bank remains open to doing deals.

More than one-third say their institution is likely to purchase a bank by the end of 2021; this represents a significant decline compared to last year’s survey, when 44% believed an acquisition likely in 2020. Branch and loan portfolio acquisitions also look slightly less attractive compared to a year ago.

The barriers to dealmaking may prove difficult to surmount in today’s uncertain economic and political environment.

With pressures on small businesses and the commercial real estate market exacerbated by remote work and social distancing measures, the recovery of the U.S. economy — and bank M&A — may hinge on conquering the coronavirus. In response, bank leaders are focused on credit quality: 63% point to concerns about the quality of a potential target’s loan book as a top barrier to making an acquisition, up significantly from last year’s survey (36%).

Despite concerns about credit quality and profitability, 85% say their bank is no more likely to sell due to Covid-19, and just 7% regret that they didn’t sell before the current downturn, when target banks could expect to command a higher price.

This willingness to carry on and weather these challenges may find its foundation in respondents’ long-term expectations. More than half anticipate a slow rebound for the U.S. economy. Twenty-eight percent don’t expect to return to pre-crisis levels in 2021, and 7% believe the recession will deepen.

Still, half believe that when the crisis abates, their bank will be just as strong as it was earlier this year. Forty-four percent express even greater optimism, believing they’ll emerge even stronger.

Key Findings

Loan Losses
More than half (57%) believe their bank’s loan loss allowance will be sufficient to cover expected losses over the next 12 months. Two-thirds say that less than 5% of residential mortgages will default and 64% that less than 5% of commercial loans will default.

Willing to Pay for Quality
When describing their bank’s acquisition strategy, 44% indicate that they seek strategic acquisitions, regardless of price. One-quarter look for low-priced acquisitions of historically well-run banks; 27% are comfortable paying a premium for well-managed banks.

Tech Acquisitions Rare
Just 11% believe they’ll purchase a technology company. Of these, 63% express interest in buying a business or commercial lending platform; 63% are open to acquiring a consumer deposit-gathering platform. Almost half seek data analytics capabilities.

Price Remains a Barrier
Potential acquirers’ concerns about pricing as a barrier to dealmaking have dropped significantly — from 72% last year to 60% in this year’s survey. However, more respondents express concern about their ability to use stock as currency in a deal, as well as demands on their capital should they acquire.

Effects on Capital
Most believe their bank’s capital levels are sufficient to weather the economic downturn, assuming a rapid (98%) or slow (98%) recovery in 2021, or mild recession (97%). Eighty-one percent believe they can weather a deeper recession. Just one-quarter plan to raise capital over the next six months.

High Marks for Trump
An overwhelming majority award President Trump’s administration positive marks for the rollout of Paycheck Protection Program loans (90%) and stimulus payments (91%), and its support of the U.S. economy (88%). Two-thirds believe the administration has effectively responded to the pandemic.

To view the full results of the survey, click here.

The Widening M&A Gap

The number of bank M&A transactions completed in 2020 represent a stark decline compared to those that have closed in recent years. Dory Wiley of Commerce Street Capital believes that deal activity will rebound in 2021 — but notes that buyers and sellers may find it even more difficult to come to terms on price. In this video, he provides guidance on how banks can meet their goals.

  • Predictions for 2021
  • Considerations for Acquirers
  • Advice for Prospective Sellers