Thirty years ago there were a record high 18,000+ banks in the United States. We’re now down to around 6,700 with all indications pointing to further consolidation. Meanwhile, new bank charters have dwindled to near non-existence with one new bank opened between the end of 2010 and 2013.
|20 years ago||10 years ago||Today|
|Total number of institutions||12,644||9,129||6,739|
|Total number of banks $1 – $50B in assets||554||553||642|
|Total number of banks $50B+ in assets||8||27||37|
|Total number of banks less than $500MM in assets||11,688||8,022||5,382|
Between the number of industry disrupters trying to win a slice of the traditional banking business and the plethora of investment opportunities in other industries with less regulation, it’s easy to imagine the number of banks falling by a full 50 percent in the next 20 years.
For better or worse, banking has become a scale business. The costs of regulatory compliance, necessary investments in new technology, physical and digital channels, and thinning industry margins mean banks will either need to be of a certain size or have a defensible niche built on knowledge rather than transactions.
For the better part of the past decade, the folks at Cornerstone have touted the $1 billion asset threshold as a marker of scale. Because of our friends in Washington and the dizzying pace with which technology has changed our industry, I think the new threshold to reach in the next five to seven years is more in the $5 billion asset neighborhood. If my prediction bears out, the vast majority of M&A activity and consolidation will take place in the midsize bank space ($1 – $50 billion), either with smaller midsize banks buying community banks or banks at the upper end acquiring $5 and $8 billion banks.
I have always been a proponent of having a solid organic growth strategy, but midsize banks will need to develop AND execute upon a solid M&A strategy to survive. Most banks lamely describe their M&A strategy as “opportunistic,” which is code word for: “waiting for the investment banker to call with a proposed deal.” This simply won’t cut it in the fast-consolidating, commoditized industry we call banking today. Here are some key areas your M&A strategy should address.
- Define Your Value Proposition. Define in financial AND human terms what makes you an attractive acquirer. The list of possibilities are endless: opportunities for stock value gains, opportunities for employee growth at a larger bank, track record of performance, a willingness to negotiate system choices, or a holding company type business model that allows the acquired bank to maintain its brand and management team.
- Identify M&A Partners. Define filters to narrow down what targets make the list including qualities like geography, asset size, branch network, balance sheet mix, capital levels and niche businesses. Tools like the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. website or SNL Financial can easily help you produce your target list. Stack rank your target list starting with the most attractive to the least by assigning weighted values to your filters.
- Cultivate the Courtship. If you are the acquirer, you need an active outreach program that includes management, directors and shareholders, with the mix changing depending on the target. Your outreach program needs to involve a consistent manner of communicating your value to your targets. Get creative. Courtship could involve providing shared services for a common core platform, inviting select management and directors to your strategic planning session, or offering to outsource from your niche expertise like trust and wealth management platforms.
- Define the Merger Value. Once you find a receptive bank, you will need to paint a clear picture of the value a merger will bring to shareholders and management of the target bank that goes beyond the pro forma financial model. The target bank will want to know about management team composition, board seats, branch closures, surviving systems and products, efficiency targets, headcount reductions, and branding, to name a few.
- Conduct Due Diligence and Begin Negotiations. If you’ve made it this far, the M&A strategy and framework you have laid out is obviously working. Now, the formal process begins.
At the end of the day, midsize banks have two choices: rely on a decades-old organic growth strategy combined with opportunistic M&A, or get in the game and execute upon a carefully defined M&A strategy. The risk of being left behind as other midsize banks scale up is not one I would want to take with my bank.