Balance Sheet Opportunities Create Path to Outperformance

How important is net interest margin (NIM) to your institution?

In 2019, banks nationally were 87% dependent on net interest income. With the lion’s share of earnings coming from NIM, implementing a disciplined approach around margin management will mean the difference between underperforming institutions and outperforming ones. (To see how your institution ranks versus national and in-state peers, click here.)

Anticipating the next steps a bank should take to protect or improve its profitability will become increasingly difficult as they manage balance sheet risks and margin pressure. Cash positions are growing with record deposit inflows, pricing on meager loan demand is ultra-competitive and many institutions are experiencing accelerated cash flows from investment portfolios.

It is also important to remember that stress testing the balance sheet is no longer an academic exercise. Beyond the risk management, stressing the durability of capital and resiliency of liquidity can give your institution the confidence necessary to execute on strategies to improve performance and to stay ahead of peers. It is of heightened importance to maintain focus on the four major balance sheet position discussed below.

Capital Assessment, Position
Capital serves as the cornerstone for all balance sheets, supporting growth, absorbing losses and providing resources to seize opportunities. Most importantly, capital serves as a last line of defense, protecting against risk of the known and the unknown.

The rapid changes occurring within the economy are not wholly cyclical in nature; rather, structural shifts will develop as consumer behavior evolves and business operations adjust to the ‘next normal.’ Knowing the breaking points for your capital base – in terms of growth, credit deterioration and a combination of these factors – will serve your institution well.

Liquidity Assessment, Position
Asset quality deterioration leads to capital erosion, which leads to liquidity evaporation. With institutions reporting record deposit growth and swelling cash balances, understanding how access to a variety of funding sources can change, given asset quality deterioration or capital pressure, is critical to evaluating the adequacy of your comprehensive liquidity position.

Interest Rate Risk Assessment, Position
In today’s ultra-low rate environment, pressure on earning asset yields is compounded by funding costs already nearing historically low levels. Excess cash is expensive; significant asset sensitivity represents an opportunity cost as the central bank forecasts a low-rate environment for the foreseeable future. Focus on adjusting your asset mix – not only to improve your earnings today, but to sustain it with higher, stable-earning asset yields over time.

Additionally, revisit critical model assumptions to ensure that your assumptions are reflective of actual pricing behaviors, including new volume rate floors and deposit betas, as they may be too high for certain categories.

Investment Assessment, Position
Strategies for investment portfolios including cash can make a meaningful contribution to your institution’s overall interest income. Some key considerations to help guide the investment process in today’s challenging environment include:

• Cost of carrying excess cash has increased: Most institutions are now earning 0.1% or less on their overnight funds, but there are alternatives to increasing income on short-term liquidity.
• Consider pre-investing: Many institutions have been very busy with Paycheck Protection Program loans, and we anticipate this will have a short-term impact on liquidity and resources. Currently, spreads are still attractive in select sectors of the market.

Taylor Advisors’ Take:
Moving into 2021, liquidity and capital are taking center stage in most community banks’ asset-liability committee discussions. Moving away from regulatory appeasement and towards proactive planning and decision-making are of paramount importance. This can start with upgrading your bank’s tools and policies, improving your ability to interpret and communicate the results and implementing actionable strategies.

Truly understanding your balance sheet positions is critical before implementing balance sheet management strategies. You must know where you are to know where you want to go. Start by studying your latest quarterly data. Dissect your NIM and understand why your earning asset yields are above or below peer. Balance sheet management is about driving unique strategies and tailored risk management practices to outperform; anything less will lead to sub-optimal results.